History repeats in Sundargarh,the vote division between Congress and BJD benefited BJP like 2014. Difference is the winning gap last time was very nominal but this time it is substantial so to say huge, however the combined vote share of BJD and Congress is nearly 5% more than the vote BJP pulled in Sundrgarh. The vote share of BJD in Odisha for Lok Sabha is 42.8% where as BJP is 38.4% and Congress is 13.8%.The BJD vote share in Sundrgarh is 25%,which is below 17% of the State average of BJD and probably the lowest vote share of BJD in the State.
BJP has improved its vote share 73% more at the cost of Congress which has slide down to 13% just half of 26% in 2014.No substantial change in the BJD vote share,which was expected this time.
Same is the case of Bolangir. The BJD Lok Sabha Candidate pulled 36% vote which is 6% below the State average of BJD and BJP pulled 38% exactly the same amount of the State average of BJP,Congress here played the role of spoiler with 20% vote.
In Kalahandi also BJD pulled 33% which is 9% below the State average of BJD,BJP hear also pulled 35% which is 3% below the State average of BJP,but the big spoiler in Kalahandi was Congress who pulled 26% vote which is twice the State average of Congress.
Even in Baleswar Congress played the spoiler role for BJD,when the winning margin between BJP and BJD was just 1% Congress pulled 15% vote in Baleswar.
This is a new Challenge for BJD,in 2014 this regional party was benefited from a three corner contest, but the changing scenario is that BJD is losing seats where Congress fighting strongly. the only deviation is Bhubaneswar,where BJP won in a straight fight.The sole Parliament seat of Odisha where Congress won is Koraput where BJP is a distance third. So,no anti-incumbency against BJD,it is only the decay of Congress which has slightly benefited BJP in Odisha.See the example for Puri,it is only due to the Congress who has lost its deposit by pulling only 44000 votes BJP could score more then 5 lakhs vote still could not won because BJD vote Bank stand strong behind Pinaki Mishra,here in Puri BJP fully enjoyed the Congress Vote Bank.Same is the case of Sambalpur,Bargarh and Mayurbhanj,here the Congress supported JMM candidate narrowly saved its deposit with only 11% vote and the winning margin of BJP is just 2%,so in Mayurbhanj BJD has not performed bed,it is only the disaster of Congress which has benefited BJP.In Cuttack BJD scored 49% vote,BJP scored 38% vote because Congress lost its deposit in Cuttack and the entire vote of Congress transferred mostly to BJP.If Congress could have done batter in Sambalpur,Bargarh and Bhubaneswar the result would have been different like a replica of 2014.
The only perfect win of BJP in Odisha is Sundargarh,Kalahandi and Bolangir where without the support of Congress vote bank it could materialized victory,rest of Odisha is at the cost of Congress.
Any surge in Congress vote bank in Odisha in future will dent the BJP vote share.The case of Bengal and Odisha is same.BJP is rising at the cost of Congress and left.It is now for Mamata Banarjee and Naveen Pattnaik to ensure the strength of left and Congress to improve to strengthen their winning chances.