It is unprecedented to accept the theory of a tactical voting in Odisha where people would vote BJD for assembly and BJP for parliament ;when clearly there is no anti-incumbency has been suggested by pollsters against Naveen Pattnaik. Drawing a line in believing this arithmetic would be foolish.A lot of logic are behind this perception.Quite surely this election nationally was on the question of “Yes Modi” or “No Modi”.So there was a parallel wave of loving Modi and hating Modi.As per the Exit Poll trend,though I still differ to the numbers of all Exit Poll,it is expected the frenzy for Modi is more dominant then the hate for Modi. Naveen very intelligently belittled the Modi wave by ignoring the issues like Balakot by not attacking Modi personally unlike Mamata did in Bengal,and he concentrated on the issues of welfare agenda of Naveen Government.Though,it is a debatable question,whether Naveen did a mistake by not attacking Modi ??Because the IT cell of Odisha BJP rampantly attacked Naveen on various fronts and created a space for the general people to accommodate Modi in their minds for the National context.It is true,but the percentage of social media motivated votes are negligible in Odisha.
So far as the question of Odisha is concerned there was absolutely no Modi wave in the state.Though some Modi –frenzy people are very much active in social media a equal number of silent voters were also underlying down the line those who were unhappy with Modi on the issues of demonetization,GST , unemployment and the like realistic issues.How ever these segment of voters are relatively lesser then the beneficiary based vote bank of BJD.These large chunk of people most of them are poor, illiterate and women are the hardcore supporter of BJD and have nothing to do with Balakot.These voters don’t have the wisdom to go for tactical voting .
Yes ,vote for change can’t be ruled out in democracy,but the outcome of assembly trend in the exit poll is clearly showing no such sign of anti incumbency against BJD or Naveen Pattnaik.So I believe either of the prediction is wrong.If BJP do well in 23rd in Lok Sabha then surely its assembly prediction is wrong,it may go upto 50 seats in Assembly if able to get more then 12 parliament seats and if BJD gets more then 100 assembly seats,no one can check BJD from winning atleast 17 parliament seats.I still believe ,winning Sundargarh,Dhenkanal,Bolanir,Bhubaneswar,Cuttack and Bargarh parliament seat is an uphill task for BJP.
Coming to the National scenario giving 300+ seats to BJP(NDA) with an aggressive prediction for BJP is welcome and can’t be ruled out,but the seats predicted for BJP in Madhya Pradesh,Rajasthan,Bihar,Maharastra,Bengal,Karnatak and Assam is the best possible part of the assessment with one side victory predicted for BJP(NDA),in case worst happens it may bring down BJP below 250.
So still there is some ifs and buts alive for the non-BJP non-NDA fronts because Exit polls have predicted the best possible chances from the NDA point of view,they have not covered the worst possible chances of NDA.